The US Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Indo-Pacific Regional Security Complex: development, relations and prospects

U Yanbin Postgraduate student, Department of International Security, Moscow State University 101000, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Kravchenko, 7 yanbinwu@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

The concept of the Indo-Pacific region^[15], which originally belonged to the geopolitical theory, was continuously defended by the countries of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue-strategic dialogue between Australia, India, USA and Japan) ^[21]. Especially under the attention of the Obama and Trump administrations, he turned the Indo-Pacific region into a new international political regional concept. In 2019, when the US Department of Defense and the State Department issued separate reports on the importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the US military and foreign strategy^[17;12], the rapid expansion of the influence of China, India and other Asian powers in the international arena is a fundamental driving force that encourages the US to constantly show interest and emphasize the importance of the Indo-PacificPacific region. In particular, the rise of China, a country with a political system and culture completely different from the Western one, has thrown a serious challenge to the hegemony in terms of world politics. And since this upward trend is almost irreversible, it has prompted the United States to consolidate its political and military resources in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and this is the main reason why the United States positions China as a global strategic competitor in the military and global strategic sphere. To some extent, China is the target and rival of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, and India is the largest non-traditional partner.

At this stage, when the global trend of the multipolarity of the world is becoming more obvious, it is extremely difficult for a superpower like the United States to fully penetrate the security system of a certain region, however, the United States can still change and influence the internal structure of a certain regional security complex. It is obvious that the Indo-Pacific region is gradually forming a supra-regional security complex, according to the theory of B. Buzan and O. Vever, and the Indo-Pacific Strategy formulated by the United States has obvious motives and intentions to influence the internal structure of the regional security complex.

Indo-Pacific region as a supra-regional security complex

B. Buzan and O. Vever define the regional security complex (RSC) as "a set of actors whose securitization and desecuritization processes are so interconnected that the security problems of these actors cannot be analyzed or resolved separately from each other"^[14]. B. Buzan and O. Vever proposed the concepts of "subcomplex" and "supercomplex"^{[8, p.10]}. A subcomplex is a subsystem within the framework of a regional security complex (for example, the Middle East complex is formed by three subcomplexes – the Levant, the Persian Gulf countries and the Maghreb). A supercomplex denotes a situation when, due to the presence of one or more global powers, two or more complexes demonstrate a relatively strong and stable interregional dynamics of interaction ^{[8, p.10]}.

Although, the name "Indo-Pacific region" is rather a strategy and initiative of individual countries in the international political arena, as a result of a kind of self-determination and formation by individual countries, rather than the active development of the region from economic to political initiatives in the field of security. The current trend is that the Indo-Pacific region is turning into a super-security complex within the framework of the theory of a regional security complex. As an independent security complex, the Indo-Pacific region already has the following basic conditions:

Firstly, the security cooperation between the two security complexes in East and South Asia has affected the security situation in the Indo-Pacific region. The prerequisite for the emergence of a supercomplex is the fact that interregional cooperation in the field of security is strong and stable and surpasses the regional situation of the implemented regional security complex, i.e. the interregional position surpasses the regional one, and then the regional security complexes, which are elements of the supercomplex, merge into a new and larger regional security complex^[14]. The growth of internal security cooperation between the two regions of East and South Asia arose not under the influence of external forces, such as the United States, but due to internal processes taking place in the region. The driving force behind the growth of security ties in the Indo-Pacific region is the security cooperation between several regional Powers. In this process, the main factor in the emergence of the Indo-Pacific region as a security complex is the strengthening of the discourse between China and India in the international system, i.e. the expansion of the spheres of influence of the two states in their respective regions and on others (Fig. 1), which led to increased interaction between the two countries in the security arena and directly contributed to strengthening security ties between the two regions.

Instruments of influence: for example, India's “Look East” policy(Look East) and “Act East" (Act East)     South Asia (with the Indian championship)

                                East Asia (with the championship of China)

                     Instruments of influence: for example, China's Belt and Road

      Fig.1.^[1]

Secondly, the supercomplex in the Indo-Pacific region and the security complex in the adjacent areas will be more clearly separated in terms of security cooperation, i.e. the security position of this security complex will be relatively independent. From within the security complex, there is a degree of interdependence between States in the security sphere sufficient to allow them to form a cohesive portfolio and to distinguish them from the surrounding security zones^[14]. Security cooperation between South and Central Asia and the Middle East is insufficient, as is security cooperation between East Asia and Eurasia. Thus, it can be judged that there is a more pronounced split in security cooperation between the supercomplex of the Indo-Pacific region and the security complex of neighboring regions.Based on realistic conditions, we can draw the following conclusions:

Firstly, strengthening security cooperation between China and India is a fundamental condition for the formation of the Indo-Pacific Security Complex. The power relations between China and India, as well as security relations, will directly determine the nature of the emerging complex. Strengthening security ties between States is usually a response to two situations: security cooperation in response to a common threat or the perception of the other side as a security threat, which leads to competition, checks and balances, and even confrontation. In the Indo-Pacific region, security relations between India and China have both positive and negative sides: on the one hand, there is an increase in cooperation between India and China on regional security issues, especially on non-traditional security issues, such as the fight against terrorism, where the two countries have achieved significant results. Currently, both sides are important members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. On the other hand, India's concern about the rise of China and territorial disputes has led to the strengthening of interregional security relations.

India's concern about the rise of China is inextricably linked to its own strategic positioning as a great power. Firstly, in geopolitical terms, India considers South Asia and even the Indian Ocean as a sphere of its own security and does not allow the intervention of other countries to ensure its unipolar status in the region. For example, faced with the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road", India still maintains a negative attitude. Secondly, India views China as a serious obstacle to becoming a great power. New Delhi believes that Beijing intends to keep India as a second-rate country, limiting it to South Asia and the Indian Ocean^[18].

It was the growing security ties between China and India, the two most important countries in the East and South Asian security complex, that made it possible to create the Indo-Pacific Security supercomplex.

Secondly, the involvement of China and India in the internal affairs of the regional security complex has increased the closeness of security ties between the two regional security complexes. From the point of view of national strategic goals, India has always aspired to become a global power, although India does not yet enjoy the same economic and political influence as China at the regional or even global level, it considers a growing or developing state, or even a global superpower, in the same way as China^[20].

Therefore, India needs to demonstrate its influence as a major power in the international arena, and participation in East Asian affairs is ideal for this - both in terms of expanding its power and influence, and as a counterweight to China's growing influence in many respects. India's “Look East” approach to East Asian affairs has taken two forms: the first is India's active participation in multilateral mechanisms in the region, in particular, conscious efforts to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN, which was upgraded to the level of “strategic partnership” in 2012 on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the ASEAN Dialogue and India^[4]. In January 2018, ASEAN and India also adopted the New Delhi Declaration on Continuing to Deepen Cooperation in Many Areas^[9]. Another direction is to strengthen security relations with East Asian countries through bilateral security cooperation. Currently, India's relations with Australia, Vietnam, Japan and Singapore have significantly strengthened as a result of increased defense and security cooperation, and their relations with each other are no longer limited to military exchanges, bilateral and multilateral exercises, and even include arms supplies.

Finally, in addition to strengthening security ties between India and China, the depth and intensity of security cooperation between other countries within the two regional complexes is gradually increasing. Security cooperation between Japan and India to a certain extent contributed to the integration of the two regional security complexes, and in 2015, during the visit of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to India, the two countries unveiled the "Japan-India Vision 2025, a special global strategic partnership" and for the first time used the concept of the "Indo-Pacific region" in a statement at the Summit^[5]. This was the first time when the two countries agreed to strengthen their strategic relations in the geopolitical arena.

From the point of view of the logic of the formation of a regional security complex, the Indo-Pacific region has formed as a supercomplex in Asia. The driving force of its growth is the growth of the power of the two main powers of the region, China and India, and the resulting changes in the regional power structure, which is also the internal logic of the formation of a security supercomplex in the Indo-Pacific region. Although internal dynamics is the main factor, it is impossible to ignore the important role played by external forces in the formation of the Indo-Pacific Security Complex.

The Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States is the way to the formation of the Indo-Pacific Security Complex.

The emerging Indo-Pacific security complex creates favorable conditions for the intervention of extraterritorial powers in the internal affairs of the complex: a multipolar power structure. (Fig. 2)

                 multipolar bipolar unipolar

      difficult Easy                                                                                     

                                      the complexity of the penetration of the powers of another region 

                                                                       Fig. 2.^[2]

The structure of identity is such that the ideas about the security of the countries of the region are not friendly or even hostile, and relations in the field of regional security are complicated. (Fig. 3)

probability of penetration mechanisms

                                                                                                                 the extent to which the countries of a region need the powers of another region

    alliance structure - friendly structure - competitive structure - hostile structure

                                                              Fig. 3.^[3]

This is an important condition for the influence of extraterritorial Powers on the internal structure of the Indo-Pacific Security Complex.

On the one hand, the Indo-Pacific region is in a state of multipolarity, there are representatives of developing countries - China and India, as well as such important regional states as Japan and Australia. The multipolar power structure facilitates the role of the United States in the formation of a regional security complex, comparing it with a unipolar or bipolar regional system. On the other hand, an important condition for the use of extraterritorial forces for penetration is that the States included in the complex demonstrate negative security relations. In the Indo-Pacific region, this manifests itself mainly in the subjective perception by the major powers of the region of the general revival of China. From an objective geopolitical point of view, the only significant geopolitical factor that has led to growing security cooperation between Australia, India, Japan and the United States is China^[23].

The deep concern of the United States about the revival of China contributed to their concern in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States has strong and long-term strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region, but the long-term cultivation of China leads to the flourishing of Chinese power and interests that undermine US regional interests and challenge US leadership, as well as the inconsistency of US economic and security policy in Asia^[13].

As an extraterritorial superpower, the United States possesses numerous political and military resources in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, and the comprehensive revival of China has forced the United States to make strategic adjustments and actively integrate political resources in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, thereby advancing the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Through the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States in three ways, the Indo-Pacific Security Complex.

First of all, through the mechanism of the alliance, and then merge with its structure safely to form a power structure under the leadership of the United States. In the Indo-Pacific region, the US has penetrated the regional security structure through the US-Japan and US-Australia alliance, and in this region the US does not seek a system of bilateral alliances, but tries to promote the network development of alliances. The development of a network of alliances in the Indo-Pacific region presents the following security situation: the United States promotes the expansion of alliance relations, that is, the promotion of multilateral security cooperation between four countries - the United States, Japan, Australia and India. For example, in 2015, Japan joined the Malabar joint naval exercises, which were initially held regularly for the US and Indian Navies in the Bay of Bengal or off the coast of Japan, subsequently the exercises of the three countries became regular^[11]; in 2019, the US, Japan and India agreed to increase investments in strategic ports and other infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region, and also reached a consensus on trilateral cooperation in the field of maritime security^[10]. Moreover, in 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are creating the AUKUS Military Security Partnership ^[7], and are holding the first summit of the leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) ^[2]. These security relations are carried out with the penetration of the United States into the Indo-Pacific region.

Secondly, to strengthen the negative perception of security in the countries of the region, to aggravate the negative interaction in the field of security and to influence the formation of a positive and positive identity structure of the regional complex. The US has taken advantage of India's wariness towards China and relies on India as an important counterweight to China, strengthening negative interaction in security relations between the two regional states. The development of security relations between the United States and India, on the one hand, contributed to the fact that India took an assertive position towards China in the security sphere, and on the other hand, forced China to take measures to counter strategic pressure from the United States and India. Such a negative development of security relations is also an important force in the securitization process, which, by worsening the security situation in the region, contributes to the preservation of US hegemony.

Thirdly, the United States seeks to manage the development of codes of conduct within the framework of the future Indo-Pacific security complex. In the modern international system, the emergence of a new region is closely related to power, whether it is the East Asian region that gradually emerged after the Cold War, or a clear distinction between Eastern and Western Europe during the Cold War, from which one can glimpse the factor of power politics. The factors of power policy include not only changes in the power structure within the region, but also the influence of pressure from extraterritorial states outside the region. The United States, which has refocused its global strategy on the Indo-Pacific region, spares no effort to promote the "free and open" values and norms that they defend. "The universal values of 'freedom' and 'democracy' have to some extent helped the US gain more discursive advantages in the region.

Using these three methods, the United States seeks to form a security system in the Indo-Pacific region in accordance with the American goals of penetrating the security complex through allied relations, increasing the negative impact on interregional security ties through interaction with India and promoting value norms based on national interests to form regional rules.

The Indo-Pacific region, as a supra-regional security complex in its initial state, represents the first clash of global States and system-level States outside the respective regions after the Cold War. The fundamental incentive of the US interest in the Indo-Pacific region are hegemonic interests, as well as their ability to interfere in the emerging Indo-Pacific security complex is primarily due to the negative perception of the countries of the region in terms of security relations, as well as the fact that the multipolarity of the power structure in the region has reduced the cost of US participation. But whether the United States will be able to achieve its goal of maintaining hegemony in the Indo-Pacific security complex depends on a clear strategic plan for the Indo-Pacific region, but to a greater extent on the security interests of the countries of the region.

The future and NDO-T of the US Pacific Strategy in the region

The outbreak of the epidemic and the election of Biden as President of the United States affected the strategic and military deployment of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, but this interaction will not interfere with the long-term strategic planning of the United States in the region. This is due to the fact that for the United States, as a hegemonic state striving for unipolar stability, the ultimate goals of participation in the Indo-Pacific security complex are to ensure that no competing state (or state threatening its global interests) appears in the region, deterring potential rivals and controlling its allies, thereby maintaining hegemonic stability.

Also, one of the key goals of the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States and its active participation in the affairs of the Indo-Pacific region is to counter the rise of China. The rapid development of China and its colossal growth in global discourse have caused widespread concern in Europe, the United States and the West, as well as among US allies in the Western Pacific, as well as concern that China possesses strategic tools sufficient to cause significant damage to US military deployments in the Indo-Pacific region, thereby thereby weakening the credibility of US security guarantees to its allies in the region^[22]. It is under the influence of this negative perception in the development of China that the United States hopes to use countries such as India, Australia, Japan and others to jointly counter the so-called expansion of Chinese power. In addition, in addition to the goal of strengthening China's deterrence, the United States proposed an Indo-Pacific Strategy aimed at the rapid development of the economy and trade in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as energy security. The Indo-Pacific Ocean is a maritime super-region centered in Southeast Asia, which was largely formed due to the rise of China and India as trading states and the formation of new global strategic roles. The emergence of a new geo-economic center of attraction inevitably led the United States to the need to adapt its own global strategy out of the need for hegemonic protection.

Neither the Biden administration nor any other US administration after Biden will be able to ignore the reality of the rise of the Pacific and Indian regions^[19]. Under the Trump administration, the United States accused China of trying to change the balance in the Asia-Pacific region in favor of China and building up military power in the Indo-Pacific region, which forced the United States to constantly make strategic adjustments and launch the Indo-Pacific Strategy^[16]. However, the role of the United States in the formation of the Indo-Pacific Security Complex is not decisive. Being an extremely important part of the Trump administration's global strategy, the ultimate meaning of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy is to preserve unipolar US hegemony in the face of the rise of emerging powers. However, with the relative decline of US power and the diversity of national interests in the Indo-Pacific region, it is still unclear whether the US will be able to successfully achieve its goal of maintaining hegemony, which also makes the US ability to penetrate and form the Indo-Pacific security Complex much less effective.

The main challenge for the US Indo-Pacific strategy is the decline in confidence on the part of allies and regional partners. This distrust stems first from concerns about the decline of US hegemonic power, and then from fears that the US will not be able to properly respond to the challenge from China, and that the US will not be able to provide security guarantees or support to its allies, and that allies will not be able to rely on US strength to realize their strategic intentions. The very distrust of US capabilities on the part of allies or regional partners will increase the cost of maintaining US hegemony, which will directly affect the achievement of strategic goals of the Indo-Pacific region. "Being a non-Asian power, the United States cannot be a strategic guarantor of Asia's prosperity...... Although the United States remains the most powerful and influential power, its military, economic and ideological superiority is declining, and global mechanisms designed to ensure the power and goals of the United States are decreasing"^[23]. With Biden coming to power, the United States has regained the banner of multilateralism, working to resolve differences with its allies, and continuing to implement the Indo-Pacific Strategy under the Trump administration, however, most countries in the Indo-Pacific region remain cautious or at least do not fully join the United States, such as recent mutual visits of foreign ministers The affairs of South Korea and the PRC^[3], and the foreign ministers of the ASEAN countries to China^[1]. This is combined with the increasingly close economic ties between the countries of the Indo-Pacific region and China, such as the recent signing of the RCEP Agreement^[6]. Thus, it becomes clear that for the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States to gain the trust of its allies or partners in the region is an impossible task. By expanding its military presence in the region and stepping up arms sales, it is exacerbating conflicts in the region, for example, aggravating the South China Sea problem, the Diaoyu Islands problem, the Taiwan problem and the nuclear problem on the Korean peninsula, and all this increases the danger index in the region. This may correspond to the strategic goals of the United States, but it does not correspond to the objective interests of most countries in the region, especially in the context of growing economic ties with China.

Conclusion

The Indo-Pacific region, as a geopolitical hotspot, has the initial outlines for becoming a new super-regional security complex: the strengthening of security cooperation between East Asia and South Asia, as well as the growing influence of regional states on regional security and even becomes an important force influencing the dynamics of regional security. Among them, the rise of China and India, and, consequently, the strengthening of cooperation between them in the field of security, is the initial driving force of the Indo-Pacific region as a regional security complex. This is the fundamental logic of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Concept put forward by the United States in response to the rise of China, since extraterritorial superpowers, by virtue of their own power, use the features of the security structure in the complex to penetrate into the complex and even dominate the security system in the region.

This is the fundamental logic of the concept of the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States in response to the strengthening of China. The United States penetrates the complex through the expansion of the alliance system and the strengthening of security relations with the countries included in the complex, and actively forms norms of behavior in the field of security in the region. However, the objective prerequisites for the operation of the US penetration mechanism are a multipolar power structure within the emerging Indo-Pacific security complex and a negative perception of security among the states of the region, but it is obvious that these objective conditions are changing: the multipolarity of the region is likely to develop into unipolarity (with a possible strengthening of China's position in the region), and the states of the region may have negative perception of China's security. The American vision of the Indo-Pacific region is more focused on the United States, while the countries of the region think more about the balance between the major powers in the region. The US Indo-Pacific Strategy looks innovative, but in fact it is only a continuation and extension of the traditional Asia-Pacific strategy. Although it is difficult to ignore the role of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy in the formation of the security complex in the Indo-Pacific region, the internal forces of the complex and the laws of the development of the complex itself also lead to the fact that the implementation of the US Indo-Pacific strategy faces great difficulties, which also leads to the fact that the preservation of US hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region faces with a number of problems.

^[1] Source: compiled by the authors.

^[2] Source: compiled by the authors.

^[3] Source: compiled by the authors.

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