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Publications of Novikov Andrey Vadimovich
National Security, 2022-1
Novikov A.V. - Forecasting the risk of terrorist attacks based on machine learning algorithms pp. 28-44


Abstract: This article is devoted to the analysis and prediction of the risk of terrorist acts based on a comparison of various machine learning algorithms. In order to determine the most important indicators, more than thirty external and internal risk factors are comprehensively considered by quantifying them and an initial set of initial data is built. The study analyzes multidimensional socio-economic and political data for 136 countries for the period from 1992 to 2020. Four indicators are also predicted, reflecting the expected success of terrorist attacks, the likelihood of socio-economic consequences and general damage from terrorism. In addition to the classical analysis models, the effectiveness of the other four machine learning algorithms that can be used to analyze multidimensional data is compared. To predict the risk of terrorist attacks, a random forest model is created, and the effectiveness and accuracy of the model are evaluated based on statistical criteria. To determine the most important initial indicators, the method of recursive elimination of features in a random forest was used. The main result of this study is to identify the most important indicators for predicting the risk of terrorism and to reduce redundant indicators, which makes it possible to improve understanding of the main characteristics of attacks. Meanwhile, the results show that it is necessary to take appropriate proactive measures not only in the form of forceful detention, intelligence and response operations, but also to improve the stability of the state, achieve social balance and improve the quality of life of citizens.
National Security, 2021-2
Novikov A.V. - The impact of political instability upon the increase of terrorism in the Middle East pp. 43-62


Abstract: The key goal of the article is to examine whether the domestic political instability associated with the “Arab Spring” caused the subsequent surge of global terrorism, which reached its peak in 2014. The author reviews six different types of domestic political instability: antigovernment demonstrations, national strikes, government crises, government repression, disturbances, and revolutions. Using the regression models, the author clarifies the impact of such factors as the level of education, Internet access, economic development, democratization indexes, and the degree of religious and ethnic fragmentariness. Analysis is conducted on the results of the models separately for different types of political regimes, forms of domestic political instability, and global regions. The results of construction and analysis a number of negative binomial regression models testify to the support of “escalation effect”, which implies that heightened intensity of domestic political instability leads to the surge of terrorist attacks. More severe forms of domestic political instability, namely repression and disturbances, generate a higher level of terrorism; however, revolution, as the most severe form of domestic political instability does not produce such effect. The formulated conclusions are also substantiated by the fact that certain forms of political instability have a different impact upon terrorism and its peculiarities, depending on the geographical region and the type of political regime.
National Security, 2020-2
Novikov A.V. - Analysis of the risk factors of emergence of terrorism in Russia pp. 31-51


Abstract: National terrorism is a complex issue, the cause for emergence of which lies in various factors and conditions that generate or are capable of generating it. The goal of this work consists in determining the key risk factors that contribute to emergence of terrorism based on expert polling of the members of academic community and law enforcement directly dealing with security of the Russian regions. The importance of this research is characterized by the fact that it allows assessing the main internal and external factors contributing to emergence and spread of national terrorism, causes thereof, and conditions that formed in Russia. The research is based on a social survey of experts in the area of security, containing questions on risk factors of terrorism. In the course of study, 72 causes for emergence of national terrorism were identified, which were later transformed into survey questions. The acquired results allowed establishing 18 main risk factors associated with the advent of terrorism. It was noted that the elimination of these risk factors will allow an overall reduction of the impact of less significant factors. The research results can be useful for countries and national regions experiencing high level of terrorist activity.
National Security, 2019-5
Novikov A.V. - Methods and models of assessing the choice of strategy in carrying out terrorist attacks pp. 48-65


Abstract: This article explores the problem of assessing the terrorists’ choice of strategy for attacking. Particular attention is given to the practices of implementation of tactical innovations to the activity of terrorist organizations. Using the theory of art of destruction, the author provides a brief characteristics to the criteria of innovativeness of the means of carrying out attacks. The first part of the article examines the link between the assessment of tactical innovations, characteristic of weapons, and the purpose of each attack. The results of two-component research allow understanding the nature, difficulty and aspect of tactical innovations. In the course of this work, the author applied the correlation-regression data analysis; factor analysis of the processing of expert opinions; verification of reliability of the scales using Cronbach's alpha. The research results suggest basic assessment of tactical innovations, which may be used for estimating the innovative maturity of terrorist organizations, and serve as the foundation for development of the more adaptive counterterrorism strategies. The author underlines that execution of attacks with high level of novelty of the selected tactic were most likely with the use of explosives, rather than other possible types of weapons. The attacks with high level of tactical novelty and relevance most often target state objects.
Politics and Society, 2018-2
Novikov A.V., Panasyuk E.A. - Influence of the type of political regime upon the choice of targets of suicide bomb attacks pp. 11-22


Abstract: This article is dedicated to examination of the influence of the type of political regime upon the logics of choosing the targets of suicide bomb attacks. It is claimed that the choice by suicide bombers of the objects of attack for the purpose of coercing the government to adopt the profitable for terrorist decisions leans on the expectation of increasing the costs and expanses of conflict for the state.  The increase of expanses can request from terrorist to attack diverse types of objects depending on the type of political regime, through which can be attained the change of political course. The research is based on the statistical method, with application of regression analysis, particularly probit regression. The acquired results testify to the fact that the more authoritarian is the regime, the higher is the probability that the suicide bombers will attach the governmental rather than civilian objects. In an attempt to create the maximally possible pressure on the government, the logics of terrorism adjusts to the type of regime, affecting the choice of objects within the states being targeted.
Modern Education, 2017-4
Koshkin A.P., Novikov A.V. - The role of social representations in studentsí motivation to acquire further education pp. 48-75


Abstract: Under the conditions of rapid development of the market of further educational services, multiple universities show interest in attracting the students to education upon the program of further professional education. From such perspective, it is extremely important to identify the significant social factors that greatly affect the representations of students regarding further education and their role in creation and establishment of motivation to continue education. This work focuses on analysis of the role of social representations on motivating students to receive further professional training during studying in the university. The research leans on the results of sociological surveys that involved 452 of the Russian students. The results were analyzed using the factor analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means clustering, and regression analysis. The authors examines the attitude of the Russian students towards further education using the six scales: 1) informedness about such programs; 2) social representations (content, conditions, price); 3) idea of the necessary characteristics of the programs and expectations; 4) desire to receive further professional training currently and in the future, as well as the impeding factors. The four basic representations about the further education have been determined in students’ consciousness. The results of the research demonstrate that social representation have a poor impact upon students’ desire to acquire further professional training during studying in the university, however have substantial effect in long-term perspective.
Politics and Society, 2017-3
Novikov A.V. - Terrorism and age of political regime pp. 92-103


Abstract: This article examines the influence of age and type of political regime upon the amount of terrorist acts in the country. An opinion is provided that majority of “young”, as well as “old” democracies are more subject to the influence of terrorism than all types and age groups of the non-democratic types of regime. The author thoroughly review how the age and type of political regime affects the various types of terrorism: international, national, and overall level of terrorism in each separate country. Special attention is given to the differences in immunity to terrorism of the young democracies and non-democratic regimes. The article revises the interconnections between the level of terrorism, type and age of the regime with the use of updated information, regression analysis, modelling, and large timeframes. The main conclusion of the conducted research consists in the thesis that the young democracies have more risk to face terrorism that the old democracies. It was also determines that the non-democratic regimes in any age experience lesser influence of terrorism than any other type of political regime.
Pedagogy and education, 2017-1
Koshkin A.P., Yablochkina I.V., Kornilova I.M., Novikov A.V. - Integration of Students' and Teachers' Interests in Terms of Corporate Acts at Modern Universities pp. 133-151


Abstract: The subject of the research is the processes of social and academic integration of students and teachers in terms of a University corporate code. At Universities students and teachers constantly have to correspond their personal interests with corporate standards and social interests. Not all students or even teachers demonstrate a positive adjustment to corporate standards and rules. Quite often there is a mismatch between students' and teachers' personal interests and their University's corporate standards. This fact affects their self-realisation, ethical and moral attitudes and professional development. The fact that some personal interests are not institutionalized gives us a wrong feeling that a person completely adjusts to corporate values and ethics described in basic corporate acts of an organisation as a result of their long teaching or working there. The main research method used by the authors is a survey that involved students and teachers. All in all, 210 students and 62 teachers participated in the survey. According to the authors, correspondence of students' and teachers' personal interests to the provisions of the corporate code may express the dynamics and orientation of the process of integrating such interests in the University environment. Students' and teachers' interests can actually agree with University values, so overcoming the gap between personal interests and social interests should be one of the ways to realise the process of interests' integration. 
Politics and Society, 2016-10
Novikov A.V. - The models of party career in federal systems


Abstract: The subject of this research is the role of party careers in vertical integration of state-territorial levels in binary and joint federal systems. A significant amount of the Western political parties has strong influence upon separate political careers of its members. The author also detects the meaningful differences in qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the models of impact of the parties upon the political career. The article examines the main distinctions between the models of political career in joint and binary federal systems on the regional and federal territorial level. The author gives characteristics to the models of party political careers in the four federative systems: Canada, Australia, Austria, and Germany; eight fairly influential national parties that have divisions on the regional level were selected for the comparison. In the context of this research, the author reviews the following: 1) vertical connections within the framework of the federal leadership of the party; 2) vertical connections within the framework of the regional leadership of the party. The scientific novelty lies in the detection of the differences in quantity and quality of the vertical integration, which confirms that for the joint and binary federal systems there is no unified pattern of political career or a single political role of the parties in federal processes. In analysis of the vertical cumulation of the party and state institutions, the more integrated modes of career were detected among the European parties, rather than non-European partners. The party structures not only define the model of the political career through interpretation of the institutional incitements, but also create the specific organizational connections between the institutions on various political levels.
Sociodynamics, 2016-7
Novikov A.V. - Terrorist activity and the role of social factors pp. 10-30


Abstract: This article reveals the influence of the social factors upon the character of the terrorist activity. In particular, the attention is given to the question why the level of social capital in the society plays an important role in explanation of the regularities in terrorist activity. The author defines size of social capital as a combination of social connections, networks, information flows, and institutions, which contribute into political activeness and play an essential role in consolidation of trust, cooperation, as well as in establishment of the universal norms in specific society. During the course of this research it was determined the social capital can put a multi-vectoral pressure, which simultaneously restrains and encourages terrorism, causing various consequences. As a result, the forces that stimulate the formation of terrorist organizations can restrain their activity or the savagery of the used by the terrorist strategies, methods, as well as the number among civil victims.
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