DOI: 10.7256/2409-7144.2017.4.22358

Abstract: The subject of this research is the political risks management techniques in the activity of political parties. The article provides common characteristic of the content of political risk in the activity of political parties, as well as presents the generalized classification of political risks management techniques (humanitarian and mathematical). The author reviews the political risks management in the activity of political parties as a process that consists of several stages: planning of risks management, identification of risk, analysis of risk, planning of reaction to risk, response to risk, monitoring and control of risks. Special attention is given to the information and communication technologies (management of speculations, organization of feedback). The conclusion is formulated that the information technologies in politics (technologies of collecting, storage, processing, and transmission of information) are of crucial importance in functionality of the political parties. The proper and systematic application of the political risks management techniques allows rapidly resolving the emerging problems, as well as making the efficient political decisions.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0684.2017.3.22064

Abstract: The subject of this article is the examination of the notions of “risk” and “political risk”. Special attention is given to the origin of the term “risk”. The goal of the article is to best define the content of the term “risk”. The author analyzes the various theoretical approaches to the study of the notion of “risk” within the framework of multiple sciences: philosophy, mathematics, economics, psychology, sociology, and politology. The work provides definitions of the term “risk”, as well as makes conclusions in the context of each scientific approach. The need is substantiated for comprehensive and multi-aspect examination of the political risks for the purpose of minimization of negative consequences of the made political decisions. The main conclusion of this research lies in the fact that each of the sciences suggests its own interpretation of the examined issue. This, in turn, is rather favorable, because each science offers something new, allowing to realize an integrative, complex, and systemic research.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0706.2017.3.22067

Abstract: The subject of this article is the examination of scientific methods of assessment of the political risks in political parties’ activity. The author ranges the methods and methodologies of assessment of the political risks into qualitative (humanitarian), quantitative (statistical), and hybrid. Special attention is given to the macro-sociopolitical models, as well as methods of social forecasting: extrapolation and analogy, scenario planning. The article also reviews the relevant research methods of assessment of the political risks, among which are the content analysis, analysis of social media, and analysis of social networks. The conclusion is made that the hybrid methods are the most efficient in assessment of the political risks in political parties’ activity. The study of factors affecting the political situation, as well as formulation of forecasting assessment based on the accumulated information, is of prime importance. The author determines and substantiate the need for comprehensive and gradual implementation of the method of assessment of the political risks in political parties’ activity.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0706.2017.3.43036

Abstract: The subject of this article is the examination of scientific methods of assessment of the political risks in political parties’ activity. The author ranges the methods and methodologies of assessment of the political risks into qualitative (humanitarian), quantitative (statistical), and hybrid. Special attention is given to the macro-sociopolitical models, as well as methods of social forecasting: extrapolation and analogy, scenario planning. The article also reviews the relevant research methods of assessment of the political risks, among which are the content analysis, analysis of social media, and analysis of social networks. The conclusion is made that the hybrid methods are the most efficient in assessment of the political risks in political parties’ activity. The study of factors affecting the political situation, as well as formulation of forecasting assessment based on the accumulated information, is of prime importance. The author determines and substantiate the need for comprehensive and gradual implementation of the method of assessment of the political risks in political parties’ activity.

DOI: 10.25136/1339-3057.2017.2.22852

Abstract: The subject of this research is the social tension and protest activity as a factor of political risk in work of the “United Russia” political party. The article provides various interpretations and characteristics of the term “social tension”. Special attention is given to the events that took place in Russia over the recent 2-3 years and significantly affected the escalation of social tension and protest activity in the country, as well as the regions (annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol, sanctions against Russia, implementation of “Plato” system, etc.). The author also examines the socioeconomic situation in Zabaykalsky Krai (late salary payment, unemployment, inflation, and others) as a factor of political risk in the work of regional branch of the “United Russia” party. The conducted analysis allows concluding that among the substantial consequences of economic crisis and dissatisfaction of population with actions of the authorities lies in the rating downgrade of the “United Russia” political party, escalation of protest moods and social tension, changes in electoral behavior. According to the results of the research, Zabaykalsky Krai has a much broader potential for the protest activity, if compared to the nationwide. The currently established socioeconomic situation in Russia and Zabaykalsky Krai is one of the factors of political risk in work of the “United Russia” political party and its regional branch.

DOI: 10.7256/2409-8671.2017.1.22614

Abstract: The research subject is social strain and protest activity as factors of political risk in the activities of the United Russia party. The author presents different interpretations and definitions of the term “social strain”. Special attention is given to the events of the last 2-3 years, which had significant impact on social strain and protest activity growth in the country and its regions (affiliation of Crimea and Sevastopol, anti-Russian sanctions, the “Platon” system launching, etc.). Besides, the author considers the socio-economic situation in the Zabaikalye territory (backdated wages, unemployment, inflation, etc.) as the factors of political risk in the work of the regional branch of the United Russia party. To solve the research tasks, the author uses general scientific research methods: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction. Besides, the author uses specific research methods: statistical, comparative, extrapolation, modeling, prognostication, content-analysis and analysis of social media. Based on the analysis, the author concludes that among the significant consequences of the economic and social crisis and dissatisfaction of the population with the party’s policy in Russia, are the party’s rating downgrade, increase of protest sentiment and social strain, electoral behavior change. According to the conducted research, the protest potential of the Zabaikalye territory is significantly higher than in Russia in general. The current socio-economic situation in Russia and in the Zabaikalye territory is one of the factors of political risk in the work of the United Russian party and its regional branch.