DOI: 10.25136/2409-8671.2023.1.39166

Abstract: The subject of the study is a set of current ideas, concepts and strategies of representatives of American expert community on Turkish issues. The relevance of the work is determined by the need for a comprehensive analysis of the process of geopolitical transformations in the region taking into account the rising role of Turkey. The research is based on publicistic sources, which include analytical studies, articles, reports and expert assessments of specialists from the leading centers and institutions. The paper shows that the study of the potential of Turkish influence is intended to find a manageable balance of power in the region where Turkey will not oppose to American interests. It is noted that in the post-Soviet space Turkey has already become an indispensable player, proactive and ready to fill the vacuum of political will and power swiftly. The author points out that the expert community emphasizes differing degree of geopolitical influence of Turkey and Russia in the post-Soviet space, which determines the readiness of Turkish leadership to rely on NATO support as a counterbalance to the historical influence of Kremlin in the region. The author concludes that US still considers Turkey as a strategically valuable partner, and in certain scenarios the Republic has a chance to get carte blanche for a sovereign foreign policy and secure a place of a new key player; in this case, the USA can find a new manageable equilibrium in which Turkey's unfriendly actions will not undermine American strategic interests.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8671.2022.1.37419

Abstract: The subject of the study is the peculiarities of Ukraine's foreign policy development at the present stage in the context of the triangle "Ukraine-Turkey-Russia". The paper shows that Ukraine is currently a zone of growing international presence: the involvement of a wide range of participants in the region in the person of international state and non-state actors, the actual internationalization of the Ukrainian transport and logistics system and port infrastructure, strengthening state sovereignty and increasing the country's defense capability through the implementation of extensive programs of financial support from Western partners – evidence systemic and long-term processes that directly affect the interests of the Russian Federation. The role of the Turkish factor in Ukraine is studied through the prism of Turkish-Ukrainian relations and Ukrainian Euro-Atlantic integration. The balance of Turkey's relations with Ukraine and Russia is shown. The analysis of the possibilities of Turkish mediation in de-escalation of relations between Russia-Ukraine and Russia-NATO is given. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the current tense international situation and military-political escalation in the region. The source base of the work includes normative-legislative acts, sources of normative-reporting and informational nature, journalistic sources. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the involvement of the corpus of the latest sources, the original perspective of the study and the theoretical and methodological approach. As a result of the analysis and on the basis of up-to-date factual information, the author concludes that despite Kiev's active support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the growth of military-technical cooperation between the countries, Turkey is not interested in the Ukrainian-Russian confrontation. Military escalation will create risks for the Turkish Republic of direct involvement in conflict relations between NATO and the Russian Federation and will deprive it of the opportunity to become an "independent center" of political influence in the region. At the same time, it is emphasized that Turkish mediation and the internationalization of the Ukrainian issue can contribute to de-escalating tensions and strengthening the foreign policy positions of the Russian Federation.