Abstract: Analyzing the possible consequences of the Western sanctions towards Russia, the experts state that thanks to globalization the Western states became dependent on Russia in no lesser degree, than Russia is dependent on them. However, Russia is capable of overcoming the dependency on the international payment systems and export of raw materials westwards. Experts offer to evaluate the theoretically possible ( while not quite realistic within the regular scope ) scenarios. The election marathon in Ukraine has started. The Central Election Committee of Ukraine has finished accepting the documents from the forty-six presidential candidates. While not all of them shall be finally registered (probably no more than a half), experts may make some important conclusions today. The global mass media pay attention to the post-Soviet territory, expecting a new explosion like an Ukrainian crisis, and the Southern Caucasus is considered the most probable candidate. The forecasts of great instability coming softly into the region became both regular and ominous.

Keywords: international relations, foreign politics, Russia, Ukraine, political instability, diplomacy, state, interests, values, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.12060

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64969

Abstract: The article is devoted to the analysis of the problems related to disassembly of political regimes in the modern states (both authoritarian and democratic) and role of the color revolution technologies in this process, including the possibilities for the counteractions against their destructive influence on the global political process. In this sense systematization and clarification of terminology related to the color revolution is quite important, since it brings clarity into the object of studies, allowing to understand the nature of color revolutions and allowing to find the methods against them. The problems of disassembly of political regimes and related issues of color revolutions in the modern situation become quite topical and actual. The reasons for it are not limited with the fact that the Ukrainian events, once one looks at them closely, repeat the scenarios of color revolutions in the Northern Africa and the Middle East (so-called Arabian Spring), and, more specifically, revolution in Egypt, showing that these events are not purely accidental. The reason is that the traditionally used disassembly instruments in the international community are currently being substituted with a new generation of the more subtle instruments, combining the forceful influences and technologies for the manipulation of the mass conscience and mass behavior of large groups within the civilian population.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, color revolutions, the Arabian Spring, Crimea, diplomacy, state, political regime, conflict, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.10649

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64967

Abstract: The current public debt crisis in the (European Union) EU began in Greece in November 2009, quickly spreading to Ireland (September 2010), Portugal (January 2012), Spain (June 2012), Italy (November 2012) and most recently, Cyprus (March 2013). This crisis has not only impacted on the Europe but also on the entire global economy, including that of Vietnam. This article will analyze the causes of this crisis, its impacts on the economy of Vietnam and lessons for Vietnam to avoid a potential public debt crisis and guarantee sustainable development. Public debt is a relatively complex concept that most current approaches agree to refer to the sum of debt whose obligation to repay falls on the government of a country . According to the World Bank (WB)’s approach, public debt is understood as the liability of four main groups of institutions: (i) Central government liability, (ii) Local government liability, (iii) Central banking institution liability, and (iv) Liabilities of independent organizations, state-owned enterprises of whose capital the state owns more than 50%, or other organizations whose debt the government has the responsibility to settle should they fails to do this. This definition is similar to that of the Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Keywords: international relations, Vietnam, the European Union, crisis, finances, global economy, state, politics, interests, conflict.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.12040

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64966

Abstract: The article sets a goal for the evaluation of the Eurasian Integration Project as an alternative means for the organization of the post-Soviet territory. Taking an example of Russian-Serbian relations, the author shows the role of traditional unity of culture and values, civilization orientations, and historic memory in the modern geopolitical conditions. The analysis of the dynamics and nature of the public opinion of the Russian formed the basis for the conclusion on the special role of the Balkan peninsula in perception and evaluation of the geopolitical status and potential of the Russian Federation, as well as on the conclusion regarding the most favorable regime for the development of cooperation between Russia and Serbia, including cooperation within the framework of the new integration model. Serbia is a traditional outpost of Russia in the Balkan peninsula (and, speaking more broadly, in Europe), being its undoubted historical ally in the Balkans, while the Balkans have always been the special geopolitical and geo-economical zone for Russia, and it has been always holding on to its priorities there. Connection between Russia and Serbia, them being the mainland and the isle of the Slavic Orthodox culture, is defined by something more than just “political profit and conjuncture”, “national interests and economic pragmatism”. To begin with, it hardly was formed out of purely “pragmatic and rational basis”. This special closeness withstood the test of time and it may be inherited by the future generations.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, Russia, Serbia, integration, diplomacy, state, interests, values, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.12169

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64965

Abstract: It is well-known, that the Kurds are the people with thousands of years of history, and due to various historical reasons, this people did not form its own state, and by the early XIX century, it dwelled in the territories of the Ottoman and Persian Empires. Most of the Kurdish tribes had nomadic or semi-nomadic way of life. After the Treaty of Turkmenchay was signed in 1828 between Russia and Persia, and in the Adrianople Treaty was signed between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, some Iranian and Turkish territories became Russian, and they were populated with the Armenians, Azerbaijanians and the Kurds. The Iranian regions (Urmia, Salmas, Khoy) and Turkish regions (Van, Erzurum, Kars) with all of their population became part of the Russian Transcaucasia. Therefore, the Kurds living there became fully competent subjects of the Russian Empire. However, it should be noted that some Kurd tribes settled in Georgia (Meskheti) in XVI, and in early XIX they also settled near the Georgian fortress Queli. The Turkish and Iranian Kurds in the new territories were loyal to the Russian government, since they saw the Russians, since they saw Russians as their liberators from the Turkish and Persian oppression. It was no accident, that soon many Kurds joined the Russian military service, and they were known for bravery and courage in numerous battles during the wars between Russia and Turkey.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, the USSR, Kurds, political stability, diplomacy, state, nation, security, values.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.10562

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64964

Abstract: The article sets the following goal – to establish how strongly is lobbying rooted within the system of social and political institutions of the modern Russia. Based upon the comprehensive and non-ideological approach towards the interpretation of the lobbying phenomenon the author defines the main spheres for its institutionalization , within which this form of interest representation became partially or completely systematized. Lobbying is traditionally understood as influence of non-governmental structures onto the state government bodies, which is implemented via specific communication instruments and tactics. The empirical basis for the scientific analysis was formed with the normative legal acts, verbatim of the speeches of the President of the Russian Federation, materials from the websites of government bodies, as well as mass media information. The author studies the Russian legislation, searching for the norms indirectly regulating lobbying activities, also singling out institutions related to governments, which serve as “portals” for the lobbying influence on the government bodies. The key conclusion of the article is that in spite of lack of a specialized law on lobbying in Russia, the sphere of lobbying is rather well-developed and its main actors act within certain rules with the established set of technologies and stratagems.

Keywords: politics, interest groups, pressure groups, functional interest representation, lobbying, institutionalization, political institution, Government Relations, law on lobbying, lobbying technologies.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11740

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64963

Abstract: At the verge of 2013–2014 in Ukraine there was a wave of protest, which was caused by the wish for the social and economic changes within the state, and it was mostly aimed against the ruling elite. The society broke in two opposing groups: one of the groups was in favor of integration with the European Union, while the other one was for closer cooperation with Russia. The result of the strife in Ukraine was the downfall of the government including the President and the Government itself. Due to the above the financial situation in Ukraine became much worse, and the inflation expectations grew. The grave domestic political crisis grew into a serious foreign political opposition, and Russia was involved in it as an important geopolitical partner of Ukraine. This article contains an overview and analysis of some factors of development of the financial sphere and banking system in Ukraine. The author provides overview and analysis of the activities of the National Bank of Ukraine as well as the second-tier banks. The author defines the directions for the bank activities and their territorial connections. The author also made an attempt to connect the dynamics of these factors (namely, amounts and dynamics of credit operations and securities operations) and the ongoing negative political events.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, Russia, Ukraine, political instability, diplomacy, economics, finances, security, values.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11785

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64962

Abstract: The latest events in politics and international relations show the importance of the novel mechanism for the implementation of the insurrection by non-violet means, which is the color revolution mechanism. The Syrian conflict included mass manifestations and protests against the government, which started in Daraa on March 15, 2011. The first demonstration caused series of other manifestation and the mass riot of the Syrian people. The problem of color revolution is especially topical due to its global spread in the Middle Eastern and North African states. Taking into account the topicality of this topic, this article is devoted to the problem of implementation and introduction of the mechanisms for the implementation of state insurrections, more commonly known as “Anglo-Saxon color revolutions” in Syria.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, Arabian revolutions, geopolitics, political instability, diplomacy, state, Syria, color revolution, Libya.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11693

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64961

Abstract: In spite of the fact that Maidan 2.0 de facto has achieved its goal, and President Yanykovych was overthrown, it did not bring long-awaited stability and normalization of the situation in the state. Due to the chaotic domestic policy of the leaders of the state, the political tension in Ukraine has strengthened, and territorial integrity is broken. The state is at the verge of the civil war, economic catastrophe further loss of integrity and loss of sovereignty. That is why the analysis of the ongoing political processes in Ukraine becomes so topical and the search for the rapture lines among the political elites and the people become so important. It is already possible to draw the line of territorial rapture within the state. Historically, from the start of its independence the Ukraine was divided into the East and the West. Firstly, it is due to the historical and cultural factors. The Western parts of Ukraine were once within the Rzeczpospolita Polska, and then Austro-Hungary, such as Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk and Ternopol regions. It resulted in an altogether different civilization type. At the same time some South-Eastern regions joined Ukraine rather recently. Secondly, this contradiction is strengthened by the fact that all of the industrial objects are targeted at the Russian market, which is due to the USSR economic model, economic zoning, since every region of the Soviet Union produced certain products for the entire domestic market. In the years of Ukrainian independence the industry was never retargeted for other markets. Thirdly, one of the factors for the territorial rapture involves cultural and relative ties. In the East of Ukraine there are traditionally closer links and relative ties with Russia, and, more specifically, with its bordering territories, that is why, any worsening of the relations with Russia are regarded as painful.

Keywords: international relations, foreign politics, Russia, Ukraine, political instability, political regime, state, nation, security, conflict.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11913

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64960

Abstract: The Ukrainian Euromaidan, which has caused catastrophic consequences for the Ukrainian statehood, is known to be the fruit of the large-scale information and psychological operation, which was initiated by the West and invested with billions of dollars and immense human and media resources. The article involves an attempt to analyze some structural and psychological specificities of information and psychological operation “Euromaidan” (leet us call it that), namely, the image of Maidan as a manifestation of the opinion of the Ukrainian people and the pillar of struggle for the democracy, formation of a number of information myths and simulacra in the minds of Russian and Ukrainian people, in order to confuse the public opinion and to provoke inadequate political actions, such as the Rusophobia myth and the “bandit-Bandera” image of the Ukrainians, the myth of universal support of the Maidan by the Kyiv people, and some other. In addition, in the course of the operation the Western political technologists used the mechanisms for the transformation of the social discontent into the Euro-illusions and anti-Russian moods by anchoring. In fact, the Euro-hopes of most participants of the Ukrainian events regarding joining the European Union and the protest psychosis against the lawfully elected government were manifestations of sublimated discontent with the social policy of the government. At the same time overly high expectations o the Ukrainian people regarding entering the EU, which caused such fatal consequences, were formed as narcissistic projections of their expectations of the Euro-integration onto the image of the European Union, while its real policy towards the Ukraine did not give any grounds for the Euro-optimism. The article also analyzes some features of the possible information psychological counter-operation towards the ultra-nationalist and anti-Russian vector of the modern Ukrainian political life.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, information and psychological operation, Euro-illusions, informational simulacrum, counter-operation, myth, Ukraine, Maidan, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11520

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64959

Abstract: The Ukrainian crisis, which probably did not yet culminate, was the manifestation of the highest point of the contradictions between Russia and the Western states. The policy of constraining, circling, weakening of Russia, which is known for many centuries, found its peak in the early XXI century. The Maidan events in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv played the role of the bifurcation point, defining the open confrontation relations between Russia and the USA, taking into account the de-facto protectorate of the USA over the Europe, as well as relations between Russia and Europe. It is more than obvious, that neither the US and the NATO, nor the EU needs Ukraine as such, with its radically polarized 40 million population, stagnation economy and the level of corruption beyond any index. They are also not interested in facilitation of democratic values and guarantees of basic human rights and freedoms in this country.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, Russia, geopolitics, Ukraine, riot, conflict, the USA, the NATO, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11422

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64958

Abstract: The article is devoted to the analysis of sources for the formation, scenarios of development and possible directions for the regulation and prevention of the modern conflicts and crises. As the experience of forecasting the geopolitical situation of the late years has shown, the forming crises and conflicts cannot be diagnosed and recognized in a timely manner. The examples of the above are numerous “color revolutions” and protest movements, which took place in the post-Soviet territory and the Middle East, where the political expert community was not ready, in spite of repeating prerequisites and scenarios for the organization of such “revolutions”. The example of the above is the wave of the “Arabian revolutions” in the North African states, protest movements in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and Moldova, which lead to elimination of the ruling regimes. To provide the vivid image, the triumph of the social networks caused the fiasco of political processes, where were applied back in the bipolar period, when two superpowers defined the main parameters of the global development, while the member states of military and political alliances followed the block discipline and actively supported the policies of the USSR or the USA in the international arena. Back in these times the forecasts involved linear extrapolation of the development in the situation at the national and international levels from the current point in the situation. Currently the situation is changed profoundly. The social and political processes in national and international system have became non-linear and turbulently manifested, due to the possibilities for almost all of the members of social networks to influence the development of political processes. All of the above considerably complicated revealing and diagnosis of the forming conflicts and crises.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, Arabian revolution, geopolitics, conflicts, diplomacy, state, interests, security, values.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.12177

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64957

Abstract: The characteristic feature of the process of humanity leaving the stage of civilization and information society and entering the noosphere stage is the development of scientific, technical, social, ethical, moral, and cultural potential. Currently the vastness of human mind becomes more and more manifest, and it forms a special attitude towards people and their environment in the search for the reasonable solution of the current nature management problems, harmonization of the relations with the natural environment, achievement of the sustainable development of the humanity in the future, resolution of the global contradictions and international conflicts based upon the reasonable (noo-vita) approach. The noo-vitism as a modern movement in the noosphere teachings is a result of development of the ideas of V.I. Vernadskiy in their application to the modern community, which is rapidly globalizing and uniting knowledge and intellectual potential within the common geo-informational field, just as it was predicted by Vernadskiy. It may be stated that there is an active process of formation of the global noosphere, but there is a “but”. While uniting and consolidating knowledge and intellectual resources into the intellectual capital, which may be converted into material profit in any place in the world, the humanity forgets that the main basis and element for the formation of the noosphere environment is the mind, which makes people live and act reasonably, follow the reasonable lifestyle. This principle and this lifestyle give rise to a new concept, which is manifested in different spheres, starting with private life and ending with the global policy – the theory and methodology of noo-vitism.

Keywords: international relations, politics, Vernadskiy, noosphere, mind, diplomacy, noo-vitism, values, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.11855

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64955

Abstract: Currently little attention is paid to the scientific studies of the phenomena of propaganda, psychological warfare, psychological operations and their influence upon the politics. Additionally the depressive situation with studies of this matter is made worse by some authors, who while not providing quality phenomenon studies, make their conclusions based upon the popular conspiracy theories without due application of scientific methodology. In order to study the said issue it is first necessary to define the terminology, which shall be used in this scientific theoretical article, namely: propaganda, psychological operation, psychological warfare. Generally, one may state that during a rather short period of time (less than a century) the methods of psychological warfare went through a long evolution starting with the propaganda and finishing with the complicated psychological operations events, when the object of influence may even not understand the influence upon his psyche.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, Russia, geopolitics, information warfare, psychological operation, state, interests, values, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.12107

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64956

Abstract: This article presents a polemic against the statement that back in 1944 the Soviet leaders had an intention to deport the Ukrainian population, which previously lived in the situation of German occupation. The author provides the facts, which leave no place for the doubts that the so-called Decree of the NKVD of the USSR and the People’s Commissariat of Defense of June 22, 1944, which was published in the Ukrainian press in 1992, and which supposedly provided for deportation of all of the Ukrainians, who have previously lived in the situation of Ukrainian occupation, is a counterfeit document. Due to the absence of any proving documents and obvious contradictions with the facts, there are doubts in the truthfulness of the statement of Nikita Sergeevich Khrushev at the XX Assembly of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1956 that I.V. Stalin did not move the Ukrainians only for the reason that there “were too many of them, and nowhere to move them to”.

Keywords: international relations, foreign policy, history, deportation, counterfeiting, Ukrainian population, fake, political provocation, authenticity, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.10747

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2014.3.64954

Abstract: Some 20 years ago the genocide of worst kind was taking place just one hour flight from Brussels. That time, assassination of different kind from the one of 1914 has enveloped Sarajevo. While massive European ignorance turned Bosnia (and the Union of different peoples – Yugoslavia) into a years-long slaughterhouse, the Maastricht dream was unifying the Westphalian world of the Old continent. Today, two decades later, Atlantic Europe is a political powerhouse (with two of three European nuclear powers, and two of five permanent members of the UN Security Council, P–5), Central Europe is an economic powerhouse, Russophone Europe is an energy powerhouse, Scandinavian Europe is a bit of all that, and Eastern Europe is none of it. No wonder that as soon as serious external or inner security challenges emerge, the compounding parts of the true, historic Europe are resurfacing again. Formerly in Iraq (with the exception of France) and now with Libya, Sudan, Mali and Syria; Central Europe is hesitant to act, Atlantic Europe is eager, Scandinavian Europe is absent, Eastern Europe is bandwagoning, and Russophone Europe is opposing. Did Europe change (after its own 11/9), or it only became more itself?