DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.1.37575

Abstract: In the article, the author addresses the topic of Internet governance as one of the urgent problems of international relations. Internet regulation in this context is considered as a new area of world politics, the role of which, in view of its economic, political and cultural potential, will increase in the near future. The study examines the approaches of different countries and international organizations to ensuring the security of the Internet space through its management. The author analyzes the evolution of approaches to Internet governance and the specifics of the growth of actors' involvement in this process. Various actors affecting information security are considered. A special contribution of the author to the study of the topic is the consideration of a historical retrospective of interstate interactions that directly affects the development of technologies around the world. Various methods of communication are analyzed, as well as the key principles and values that should guide the subjects of the Internet governance process. The study mentions the need for developing countries to participate in existing Internet governance mechanisms. The author identifies various scientific approaches to the regulation of the Internet space used to prevent threats to global security. This article concludes about the predominant role of the approach to regulating the Internet space through the "new multipolarity".

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.1.36574

Abstract: The subject of the study is the modeling and forecasting of terrorist and extremist activity of RSO-A. This task is urgent, since terrorist activity around the world has remained very high in recent years and even a rough forecast allows us to take preventive measures in case of a possible aggravation of the situation. Usually, an analysis of the mechanisms of radicalization and the formation of extremist groups is used for forecasting. At the same time, the methods of game theory and machine learning and models of the spread of epidemic diseases are used. In all cases, the verification of models requires a large amount of initial information, which, as a rule, is missing. In addition, these models are applicable only for regions with a sufficiently high level of extremist and terrorist activity.The paper proposes a method for predicting terrorist and extremist activity for regions where its level is low. The method is based on the assumption that people who are not satisfied with their social status and do not see prospects for its improvement are involved in various radical groups and/or are inclined to extremism and terrorism. Since it is much easier to get into a radical group whose activities are not prohibited by law, the increase in the intensity of involvement in them outstrips the growth of extremist and terrorist activity and is its harbinger. The method is tested on the example of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, in which adherents of radical Islam are a typical radical group. It is shown that for RSO-A, terrorist activity in the region can be predicted by the intensity of involvement in radical groups with a lag of two years. The proposed model allows us to satisfactorily assess the change in terrorist activity in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania for the period 2015-2019.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.1.26058

Abstract: The object of the study is the official position of the authorities regarding the information security of the country and the official view of what role the mass media should play in this complex system. The authors pay special attention to recent changes in this area and the analysis of what measures have been taken by the state to regulate the issue of information security. Particular attention is focused on regulatory legal acts, which are legislative initiatives of strategic planning in the field of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation. When working on the article, the authors emphasized the use of sociological, systemic and institutional research methods. The main conclusion of the studied problem is the awareness of the understanding that the mass media have a strong influence on public consciousness. In this case, it is important to understand who exactly uses the media as a tool of manipulation, since an adequate analysis of these processes will ensure national and information security. In particular, the author substantiates the special role of the institute of television as the main means of social control through the appropriate representation and interpretation of social reality.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.1.36596

Abstract: This article is devoted to the analysis and prediction of the risk of terrorist acts based on a comparison of various machine learning algorithms. In order to determine the most important indicators, more than thirty external and internal risk factors are comprehensively considered by quantifying them and an initial set of initial data is built. The study analyzes multidimensional socio-economic and political data for 136 countries for the period from 1992 to 2020. Four indicators are also predicted, reflecting the expected success of terrorist attacks, the likelihood of socio-economic consequences and general damage from terrorism. In addition to the classical analysis models, the effectiveness of the other four machine learning algorithms that can be used to analyze multidimensional data is compared. To predict the risk of terrorist attacks, a random forest model is created, and the effectiveness and accuracy of the model are evaluated based on statistical criteria. To determine the most important initial indicators, the method of recursive elimination of features in a random forest was used. The main result of this study is to identify the most important indicators for predicting the risk of terrorism and to reduce redundant indicators, which makes it possible to improve understanding of the main characteristics of attacks. Meanwhile, the results show that it is necessary to take appropriate proactive measures not only in the form of forceful detention, intelligence and response operations, but also to improve the stability of the state, achieve social balance and improve the quality of life of citizens.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.1.36163

Abstract: In statistics, there is a phenomenon called "estimation bias". It is determined by the fact that with the spontaneous formation of the studied samples in social research, a kind of "shift" occurs, determined by the motivation of respondents. The analysis shows that a similar phenomenon occurs in many areas of evaluation related to a person: writing reviews about products and services, conducting surveys, forming applications. This principle can manifest itself in the formation of public opinion on socially significant issues: during elections, referendums, and the like. Moreover, knowledge of the principle of "displacement" can be used to organize a deliberate "shift" of the results of socially significant surveys. Examples of such use are the technologies of "color" revolutions carried out by relatively small groups of people or the well–known method of so-called "smart voting". Using general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, the article shows possible approaches to the formation of such "shifts", analyzes the possible consequences of the implementation of such technologies and formulates proposals to counteract them. It is concluded that the purposeful use of "bias" assessment technologies can lead to conflicts of interests between different groups of society and the authorities, but it could not be corrected until now due to the lack of appropriate counteraction mechanisms. The development of mechanisms for assessing the consequences of the "shift" and countering it, theoretically, can provide counteraction to the use of external influences to destabilize the state in the case of intentional use of the "shift". In case of accidental formation of a "bias", forecasting methods will ensure the detection of an error. Conclusions are drawn that the proposed methodology for assessing the "bias" is not just a theory, its implementation will have a practical effect, which is to increase the stability of the system of state and municipal management.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.1.37339

Abstract: The current COVID-19 crisis signaled the need to change the paradigms of the development of the world economy from financial to industrial. This is most clearly realized at present in the USA, a world leader country that has been actively engaged in solving its enterprises in the real sector of the economy for several years. Against this background, Russia already has some lag, having almost not yet begun the revival of its once powerful industry. In addition, even the few industrial projects that are being implemented are mainly aimed at the development of extractive industries and the production of primary processing products. This state of affairs needs correction, which should be based on a wide range of scientific, organizational and technological measures, affecting not only the Russian Federation, but also integrating a large number of allied and neighboring countries. In order to overcome the existing problems, therefore, it is possible to make some recommendations that would be advisable to implement: - to implement a system of full-scale study of the dialectics of financial and industrial paradigm shifts; - to develop clear concepts of financial and industrial socio-economic development; - to develop a unified state program for the reindustrialization of the country, taking into account its implementation on the domestic raw materials base; - to form a strategy for integrating the economies of the CIS countries to increase their competitiveness; - to form an effective system for stimulating real production based on tax optimization and the development of public investment; - to create a logistics system for the supply of domestic products or products of the alliance formed on the basis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; - to define the concept of ownership of the production capacities of the real sector of the economy by the Russian state and business; - create a system for the development and use of Russia's innovative potential, including in its regions; - create a system for regulating inflationary processes in the interests of the real sector of the economy.